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Fester and his proctoscope seem fascinated with butt play.
inicky46 61 Reviews 1 reads
posted

But sometimes things are obvious on their face; like that the original Carville story is utterly made up.

lester_prairie867 reads

Based mostly on Rasmussen polling, my final week predictions are a Trump+1 popular vote and 312 electoral vote winning the swing states of NV, AZ, GA, NC, Wi, MI and PA (and all the other expected red states associated with 312.)  
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I would not be shocked, however, if Trump loses.  Everything is within the margin of polling error, and that assumes their poll weightings are correct -- which is not covered by statistical MOE.  Also can never predict an October surprise, but it is late in the game now.

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cks1751 reads

the polls are so tight, I won’t be shocked if Kamala wins.

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RespectfulRobert7 reads

I can't even begin to think of anything THAT dumb, so close to an election. Megyn Kelly, who if anyone saw her on Bill Maher Friday said she is voting Trump, was excoriating Team Trump for what happened in NYC.  
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Kamala +2 in PV and she wins the EC 286-252.

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followme1 reads

calling half the country "GARBAGE"

there you go, now you have something more dumb, and you did not even have to think.

 

2024 = Trump270+

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willywonka4u0 reads

…points to a Trump win at 312 EV, but it could very well be much higher. Harris is not going to do as well as Hillary did.

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coeur-de-lion1 reads

Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina to hit 270.  Everything else will be gravy.  

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inicky463 reads

The electorate has changed massively since 2020 and the sampling formulas have not fully accounted for it.

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cks1753 reads

Nicky hasn’t made a prediction and to date has only acknowledged that it’s very close. Yet when the pollsters report it as a toss up, Nicky says they haven’t got it right?

I’m also taking issue with the massive change in the electorate take.  We’ve seen more women shift to DEM post Dobbs, but we’ve also seen a shift of minority voters to the GOP.  Massive change? Incremental maybe. But massive? No.

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willywonka4u2 reads

My What If Premise says that pollsters significantly undercount GOP voters in polls. The margins do vary by 2% to almost 10%. But there seems to be this odd phenomenon where that percentage varies by state. I assume this has something to do with how sophisticated and refined the polling is in a given state. I was looking at this the other day, and some states are really out there. The polling in Texas for instance is really bad. Nevada seems a bit goofy too. But Virginia seems to be pretty spot on. Their variance is not that high. This isn’t too surprising, Virginia has a lot of resources, a lot of federal workers, lots of military, etc. But places like Minnesota the variance is like 7-8% in the last couple elections. So how much the polls are off does bounce around a bit. But one thing I haven’t seen is any state undercounting Democrats. It may happen, but I haven’t seen any evidence of it.

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cks1752 reads

Veteran Democrat strategist James Carville is telling campaign advisors and high-level donors behind the scenes that Kamala Harris is headed for a historic blowout, telling them she will lose every swing state and probably New Hampshire and Virginia too.
Related Link: Carville: She Probably Loses Virginia & New Hampshire

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lester_prairie3 reads

Carville issued a non-denial denial. He said produce a witness and he'll part with 100 dollars.

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inicky461 reads

If that report re Carville is true then how come he predicted a Harris win only yesterday on MSNBC?
Methinks ChicKie is peddling bullshit.

Related Link: https://www.msnbc.com/the-beat-with-ari/watch/-i-m-certain-harris-will-win-trump-scramb...

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cks1751 reads

Lester noted that Carville issued a curious non-denial denial re his private remarks. No one is questioning whether or not he spoke on MSNBC.

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inicky461 reads

Clearly you were using the bogus Carville story to imply he really thought Harris will lose. Fester then bolstered the "story" by mentioning the "non-denial denial." I posted the MSNBC reference to point out what he ACTUALLY said in public. You were not "questioning it." You never mentioned it until I did. Your torture of language and common sense continues.

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lester_prairie1 reads

If you don't go over a notorious spin doctor's carefully chosen words with a proctoscope, you are even more naive than I imagined.

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inicky462 reads

But sometimes things are obvious on their face; like that the original Carville story is utterly made up.

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willywonka4u1 reads

This I think is the best case scenario for Harris. Trump could do much better than this.

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Hpygolky1 reads

So I’m going along with the Raging Cajun,Regardless of what some have posted on twitville..
I don’t buy the twitter propaganda bullshit so…there

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cks1751 reads

So far, all the conservatives have predicted a Trump win and the liberals who have offered a prediction are going with Harris.  Is any conservative going to predict Harris? And lib going to predict Trump?

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coeur-de-lion1 reads

The conservatives are unemotional and form their opinions based on facts while the Libs are all about following their emotions and feelings.  The respective nominees know this and that's why they conducted their campaigns to target these two distinct types of voters.   The facts are not going to change for the conservatives, so they will stay the course.  However, moderate Dems who realized they are being manipulated through their emotions are still available for poaching by Trump.   That is why the more Kamala shows she is playing them through her repetitive rhetoric and avoidance of the issues, the more she will hemorrhage voters who will move over to common-sense with Trump.  She is trying to convince voters that it is more important to hate Trump than to want a better life for themselves, and even hard-core Libs are waking up to her scam.

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