Michigan: Trump+2.9
Pennsylvania: Trump+2.5
Georgia: Trump+1.7
Arizona: Harris+0.1
Nevada: Harris+0.1
Wisconsin: Harris+0.6
North Carolina: Harris+1.7
.
They actually have Trump doing WORSE than their poll last month nationally.
So let’s review where we are. Trump is dominating to such a degree that the race is effectively over. He’s ahead in all the swing states, and he could win Maine, Virginia, New York, California, etc. But if you look at the polls, they show a fairly close race. Why? Well, take a look and see how many polls have been done for Massachusetts lately. Or Idaho. Nobody is going to pay for a poll where everyone knows the result.
Back in 2008, it became clear from early on that Obama would win the nomination. The media propped up Hillary for months, despite that a look at the delegate math showed Hillary didn’t have a chance. Why? Because of $$$. The longer the media could draw things out, the more money the campaigns would spend on ads, which went into the bank accounts for CNN, MSNBC and Fox. The media intentionally told people something that wasn’t true and accurate in order to benefit from it financially.
The same thing is happening with the polls. There was never a Kamala bump. It was entirely fake. Her popularity was about the same as Biden. In states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, her popularity is even less than Biden. Pollsters did intentionally lie about her popularity to give Democrat donors what they wanted to hear so they would keep donating, but many pollsters found ways to manipulate the data to make it a close race. Why? So people would keep hiring them to conduct another poll. A 2% spread means someone will pay for another poll a week later. A 25% spread means they won’t. So just like in 2008, we have the profit motive obscuring the truth. And as we’ve gotten closer to the election, the degree of poll manipulation has lessened in order to save the pollsters reputations.
But make no mistake. Harris’ campaign is dead in the water. Has been since day 1. Harris will be lucky to crack 200 EV.
As I have been saying since the Joe Joe fucked the SNC by putting her in…
IT’S FUCKING KACKLES FOR CHRISTS SAKE!
All you lefties suddenly got wet panties for her and have been saying she’s the greatest thing since sliced wait… SINCE JESUSE CHRIST!!!
She’s a moron, you cats think she is an intellectual. 🙄
She goes to pieces in public, you cats say she kicked Brett Baiers ass 🙄
She has no plan for running this country, you cats don’t care and swallow more blue 🥶 koolaide 🙄
But hey the TDS is strong here. 🙄
If Harris wins you can be sure he'll spout: "Trump had the race locked up. Then the Dem machine pounced and put their thumb on the scales, illegally pumping millions of votes to Harris. RIGGED ELECTION!! TO THE STREETS!!!! WAAAAAAHHH"
You read it here first.
Dems and Reps are going to mostly vote along party lines no matter who their candidate is. So elections are won by shifting independents -- and independents are the least engaged and informed. Therefore they are going to be swayed by less than rational appeals. It's hard to have confidence in the outcome for that reason.
And it usually is when things go to hell like the Democrats have done. But we shouldn’t think of independents as equally left and right people who are just uninformed. Sure, there’s plenty of uninformed voters, but the bulk of them are Democrats. Independents are overwhelmingly conservative. You see it in the polling on various issues. When you ask about who trusts the media, Republicans and independents both say the media is shit. Democrats are the only ones who trust them.
Some independents are libertarians, or conservatives who are disgusted enough by politics that they don’t want to hang their hats on a political party at all, but many of them are former Democrats who ran from the party due to their extremism and are in the process of becoming Republicans. In one or two election cycles they will be Republicans. You see this all across the party. People who have spent 20 years promoting Democrats are abandoning the party. They see what defunding the police and soft on crime policies have done to their communities. And as a result, the Democrat coalition is crumbling.
For better or worse, have a two party system. Each party has to build coalitions of various groups. Dubya may have been an idiot, but he did a good job of uniting libertarians, business conservatives and Evangelicals. The old school Democrat coalition from Lyndon Johnson until Bill Clinton was the working class, blue collar union workers and the blacks. Clinton invited business into the party to grow their coalition and screwed over the working class. But future Democrats weren’t so cunning in growing their coalition. The party increasingly became is mishmash coalition of minorities, gays, weirdos, freaks, communists, big tech, and big pharma. These people have almost no common interests. Nothing really to unite them. And as time has gone on, bigger segments of that coalition have broken off of the Democrat party and joined the Republicans. The GOP is now the blue collar working class party. Unions are breaking towards the Republicans. Blacks are joining the Republicans. Even Big Tech is joining the Republicans. What the Democrats have left are the communists, women, some minorities, and Big Pharma. And so the Democrats hope to win by running a communist minority woman that is an airhead and nobody likes. It’s easy to see how this isn’t going to work.
Democrats do not have the wisdom to grow their coalition. Meanwhile Republicans are growing the size of their coalition at break neck speed. You see this dynamic play out in the political ads too. Republicans are running on the economy, on open borders, on high crime rates, bread and butter issues. But what do you see in every single Democrat ad without fail? Abortion. That’s it. That’s all they have. Abortion.
Abortion is only a consequential issue for a small percentage of the population. 50% of the population are women. Only about a quarter of them are in their fertile years. You might be able to get a 60 year old woman to vote in favor of abortion rights, but chances are she’s miserable, single and crazy.
This does not work out to a winning combination. Democrats have lost ever bigger chunks of their coalition because they didn’t have any way to weed out their crazies. The crazies are running things now. And that’s not a big enough group of people to win the White House.
These are just some of the reasons why Trump is going to win and win bigly.
And what makes him think 60 year-old women don't care just before they're no longer of child-bearing age? They have daughters and grand-daughters.
What an idiotically-simplistic attitude.
Wanker is a jackass.
Why on earth would a 60 year old woman want her daughter or grand daughter to have an abortion? Are they screaming, “please destroy my legacy! Wipe out our gene line for God’s sake!” Or are they saying, “when are you going to give me grandbabies?!?!?!?”
They were the most accurate pollster in 2020.
No wonder with one of the polls from them that you posted that she was only leading with women by 5 whereas every other pollster has her lead in double digits. Let's see if they self correct. They are def in need of doing so as there model is deeply flawed, obviously.
AtlasIntel Oct 12-17 Full Field
National Trump +3.1
NC Harris +0.7
GA Trump +1.4
AZ Trump +0.6
NV Trump +0.3
WI Harris +0.7
MI Trump +2.8
PA Trump +3.3
(They published both head to head and full field, I only listed the full field.)
Michigan: Trump+2.9
Pennsylvania: Trump+2.5
Georgia: Trump+1.7
Arizona: Harris+0.1
Nevada: Harris+0.1
Wisconsin: Harris+0.6
North Carolina: Harris+1.7
.
They actually have Trump doing WORSE than their poll last month nationally.
Because the polls says so? My man...the polls are like a suckers bet now.
They're manipulating you to think that trump IS dominating.
And if trump should loose then you and the trumps knuckleheads have that excuse for a Jan 6ht 2.0. Can you see it now? How can trump loose if the polls showed trump ahead? Oh wait, it was the 20 Million illegals that fell through the cracks..Or it was rigged, the Dominion voting machines.
You and most who are following the polls...are being played
Trump is more popular now than in 2016. Harris is less popular than Hillary was. Do the math.
Trump is “Known”, be it a sexual predator, or felon with 34 convictions.
I know of Trump, and I don’t like him. And I’m sure I’m not the only one
Trump is “Known”, be it a sexual predator, or felon with 34 convictions.
I know of Trump, and I don’t like him. And I’m sure I’m not the only one
…because it was making Trump more popular. Because DUH.
To root and holler for trump, ya know the mantra of "USA,USA,...USA", "Trumps the man".
But secretly...they're voting for Harris.
Hpygonewoke, wrong as always
It is not the polls
It is not the betting markets
What makes me think Trump is dominating is you and your posts and that of all the woke soy-boy beta lefties that post here.
2024 = Trump 270+