This is very, very troubling. Four years ago at this time, Biden's lead with AA voters under 50 y.o. was by 80 points. Today? Biden leads with those same voters by 37! Trump's support with AA in general is now THREE times higher than in 2020.
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This is the sort of news that will make a Michelle Obama candidacy, or whomever, much more likely to replace Joe. I think they will see how the debate goes, then they will have a good amount of time to think things over through the July 4th holiday, but if this sort of polling continues, I would only give Joe a 30-40% chance he will be our nominee.
I don’t think we’ve seen that level of support for a candidate since Nixon ran against JFK in 1960. Look for more polls pitting Trump against alternative Democrats in the coming weeks.
I don’t think they can. How can they put someone in his place who hasn’t won any of the primaries? Michelle Obama has no interest in running or even living in DC. Gavin Newsom would be a disaster. Who else is there? Hilary? Kamala? Jill Biden?
That’s a good question. Party convention delegates are not subject to the same law and Constitutional requirements as presidential electors, so it might be possible that some state delegations would attempt to abandon him at the convention. But party rules probably make that impossible.
That’s why the most likely scenario is one that Robert has discussed before, where a backroom deal is made and then Biden withdraws, releasing his delegates.
If not Biden, than who? Robert has made a strong case that only Michelle Obama could take the nomination and then win in November. But there’s been a right wing whisper campaign starting that does suggest Hillary is angling to be the replacement. And polling earlier in the primary cycle showed pretty much any Dem candidate but Biden cruising to victory over Trump. Given that fact set, I would think the Newsom, Whitmer, Shapiro, Mayor Pete and other camps would be angling for the nomination at an open convention.
I never said Mrs Obama was the "only" person that could do it. What I said was that she is the one that would be the best and easiest replacement.
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That said, how Lost or Willy know what Michelle thinks is incredible. Neither would have any idea what she thinks at THIS point. Things have changed drastically in the lats few years and I don't ever recall her ever saying she would never get into politics and if she had, how many people say "no" only to say yes at a later time?
with a clear majority of the primary votes could be removed by the party is if Biden dies or is declared incompetent by a court before the election. Even attempting this in any other scenario would leave millions of Democrat primary votes with the impression that the party is disenfranchising them, and it could backfire in a more impressive victory for Trump. However, in the case Biden were to die, who do you think Kamala would pick for her VP choice, and would it make any difference in the outcome?
21% of independents say that they are less likely to vote for him after his conviction. OUCH!!
You could hypothetically swap the Black vote for the Independent vote, but the electoral reality is that the Independent vote is split, and if Black support falls to the levels these polls are showing, then Biden loses the popular vote and Trump is swept into office in an EV landslide.
The same polling showing that the convictions MIGHT change 21% of the Independent vote and shows close to half believing the prosecutions are politically motivated.
will not get more than 79% of the independent vote because of his conviction? That would probably mean a landslide for Trump. A little context might make your comment mean something. Just a suggestion.
...say who conducted the poll. It's just a conversation between John Berman and Harry Enten. It's fucking worthless.
And polls have been worthless since 2016. This is what James Clyburn had to say about polls:
"I don’t think (Black male voters have) left the fold. I don’t know what is going on with the polling taking place here. I just had attended my state, my NAACP event last evening, I’m on my way to an [African Methodist Episcopal Church] … I’m going to tell you something. There [was] zero support in that place last night for Donald Trump, zero support throughout the African Methodist Episcopal Church."
Clyburn said he has “no idea what’s going on with” polling and argued “something is wrong” with the survey system in the U.S. He pointed to the Democratic primary election for U.S. Senate in Maryland. Angela Alsobrooks was 5 points behind in one poll and seven points behind in another poll with one week to go before the primary. Her opponent spent $60 million of his own money on the primary. Alsobrooks won the primary by 10 1/2 points. Clyburn said:
"How can the polls get that so wrong? That’s going on all over the country."
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4712521-rep-clyburn-dismisses-trumps-rising-support-from-black-male-voters-in-polling/mlite/
Left or right, I don't suffer fools gladly, and you, Robert are a fool.
He has "no idea what's going on..." Him and you, perfectly made my point BigPapasan. Thank you. 
Chalk up one more flop for BigP.
He is either an "idiot" because he didn't take his time to look at the link or BigPapasan is now cognitively declining. Sucks to be him I guess.
...waste M ORE time watching a video when you could have simply posted who conducted the poll...idiot.
You were WRONG bc you didn't take your time with the WHOLE link and you embarrassed yourself YET AGAIN. Now THATS what idiots do. 
He still wants to know who did the poll when we’ve done the work for him and explained it’s an average of the current polls.
He is an idiot, lazy and a liar.
You were WRONG because you didn't take your time to simply create a TITLE for your link. All you had to do was put in the title box: "Harry Enten & John Berman discuss _________poll." Then we wouldn't have to BOTH read the link AND watch the video.
You embarrassed yourself YET AGAIN. Now THAT'S what idiots do when they don't know how TER works.
During the 2008 Democrat primary between Obama and Hillary, it was clear from early in the campaign that Obama had a clear advantage. But if you listened to the media, both candidates were neck and neck. Why did they do this? Well, because if the media gave the impression the race was closer than it was, it would incentivize each campaign to produce more campaign ads, which would increase the profits of the news companies who collected campaign ad revenue.
I relate this story because it shows just one of the many ways journalism acts to distort the truth for their own benefit. Journalists also tend to be dumber than rocks, and so when a complex scientific question is explored journalists don’t understand it. It’s so bad that they’re easily duped by hucksters and con artists. See Theranos and Elizabeth Holmes.
Polling is a statistical science. When done right it can be incredibly accurate. But accuracy is expensive. You can see get pretty close accuracy for half the expensive, but over many many polls, not so accurate results can add up. But media sensationalism and spin can give people the impression that polling is always hopelessly inaccurate. This is not true. But polling methodology does matter.
Media reporting of polling gives you a snap shot of the media’s sensationalism. But if you’re enough of a masochist to bore yourself with endless polls over a long period of time, then a clear picture should emerge.
Confirmation bias is a terrible thing. If you want to see outcome Y then it is very hard not to cherry pick the evidence X that leads to that conclusion. Everyone is vulnerable to this, unfortunately.
Most middle income AA voters are not at all happy with Mr Biden. Although they may think Mr Trump is an ass, my thought is that they are not willing to try another 4 years of the same, so Mr Trump will be the only choice. You might say, it's a shame that we're in this spot all over again but imo, the view is completely different than it was 4 years ago. I believe it's opposite. Truthfully, no one who supports the democratic party should be very happy about Mr Biden being in the race at all.