The Hill weighs in with 276 for Kamala at this time. Latest Emerson state polls showing Texas and Florida MUCH closer than expected.
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Then you have the massive influx of cash towards Kamala, numerous well known Republicans endorsing her, and the incredible election predictor Alan Lichtman saying she will win.
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If that all weren't enough, Goldman Sachs has said Kamala will be better for the economy than Trump!
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Long way to go but I am sure it's white knuckle time inside Team Trump. lol.
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http://www.reuters.com/world/us/goldman-sachs-sees-biggest-boost-us-economy-harris-win-2024-09-04/
Lichtman model doesn't seem very objective.
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Can anyone explain how Lichtman differentiates between Biden and Harris. Because Biden was headed for a massive loss. Which of Lichtman's keys accounts for the difference with Harris?
He has predicted every popular vote correct for 40 years! He has predicted numerous Rs winning including Trump in 2016! Good god man wise up!
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Watch and weep Lester.
Can you answer my question?
All the keys were laid out on the video Lester. Stop being so lazy.
Anyone who predicts kuntmala will win or is ahead in the polls etc. you proclaim as world renowned and best in the field of election predicting.
here are some predictors you may want to follow too.
Tell us what you think
http://ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/postdetail.cfm?postnum=20933
Can’t wait for you to get on your knees and praise your next (harris will win) predictor de jour
2024 = 28
Now this guy has been doing this since the 1800's. His model in based on "keys"...and his system has worked for 40 years so...
So you have your Nate Silver and then there's Lichtman
Are as follows according to USA Today:
◾ The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.
Didn’t the GOP win the House in 2022?
◾ The sitting president is running for reelection.
Nope.
◾ The White House party is avoiding a primary contest.
Well, that’s a red herring if there ever was one.
◾ There is a third-party challenger.
There’s always a third party challenger. Cornell West and Jill Stein run every year now. I guess he means if there’s a major third party candidate.
◾ The short-term economy is strong.
It’s quite weak.
◾ The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
Hammered by inflation for the last 4 years.
◾ The White House party has made major changes to national policy.
Jailing opponents seems like it’s pretty major.
◾ There is sustained social unrest during the term.
Pretty endless protests over Israeli
◾ The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic.
Hiding dementia is just one of many scandals.
◾ The challenger is uncharismatic.
Trump has been in show biz all his life.
◾ The incumbent is charismatic.
Cackles is typically pretty boring.
◾ The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.
Two wars broke out on their watch when they inherited world peace.
◾ The White House party has foreign policy success.
They gave our weapons to the Taliban and got US soldiers killed.
Maybe there is something to Lichtman’s model. But it means Trump is going to clobber Harris.
Jeez, all those are highly subjective.
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Now to my specific question, how is Biden different from Harris in the keys. (Also, did he predict Biden would lose?, Because Biden was going to lose.) The second key has no historical analog. There was a switcheroo. Subjective call. The Third key is irrelevant. Subjective call.
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Most of the other keys unrelated specifically to Harris vs Biden are blatantly subjective. Is the economy good enough? Pick a number. Totally subjective. Sustained social unrest? Subjective on sustained. Scandal? Highly partisan subjective opinion. Charismatic? Hyper partisan evaluation. Foreign policy success? Again, depends on partisan lens.
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This isn't a scientific objective measure. It's a subjective analysis.
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So anyhow, it must have predicted Biden losing to be accurate and Biden was losing badly. Almost nothing changed in the keys with the switcheroo, as they were historical datapoints.
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This looks more like the work of a charlatan who makes lucky guesses.
Lichtman got "lucky" for FORTY YEARS????? You are sounding as idiotic as Willy. He doesn't make a prediction until September so he never made a prediction about Biden vs Trump. A "charlatan" is a fraud Lester. That defines Trump. An "expert", on the other hand, nailed every election going back 4 decades and the keys are accurate going back to Lincoln. But to a silly know nothing like you, they were all "lucky guesses." Oh, ok, Lester. lol.
Yes, it's hard to argue with his record but his criteria are awfully "squishy." As you know, I'm skeptical of polls, too, but at least they're based on talking to actual people.
So if Biden was still in, do you think he'd pick Biden to win? I'm asking what is the difference in his keys between Biden and Harris. Some keys have no historical analog of a switcheroo three months before the election. There is no reason in 1981 when he came up with the keys that he could or would anticipate that as a factor to be included.