So I've been looking at Real Clear Polling most of the time recently, the polling averages seems more steady and accurate. RCP seems to indicate a pretty hardy Trump blowout. But Nate Silver seems to have more favorable polling for the Dems. It still seems to suggest Trump will win, but by a more narrow margin. What is surprising, and frustrating is that many states on Nate's 538 site has no polling at all. I mean, I know Trump is going to win Louisiana, but no polls from there at all? Some state could have trended in some weird direction and we'd never know it. But anyway, here are the few swing states and states that I think are worth looking at. I included everything that I thought was surprising, regardless of which candidate it favored.
All from 538.
Arizona: Most recent poll has Trump up by +4. Recent poll had Trump up +8, a couple others had him up +2. A CNN poll had Harris +1. Kari Lake has been trailing all through the election, but finally there's one poll that has her up by +1.
Georgia: Trump ahead in 7 of the last 9 polls. One poll even, one poll Harris +1, the rest has Trump +1 to +5. Most recent one +3.
Maine: Has split districts. 2nd district, Trump +9. 1st district solid Harris. Maine statewide +7 Harris, but this was the polling from September. Nothing more recent.
Michigan: Trump +1. Another poll a few days ago, Harris +1. Another poll, Trump +1. Another poll, Harris +1. The polling suggests a very tight race in Michigan.
Minnesota: Saw a poll a few days back that only had Harris +3. A few other polls since then has Harris +8 and +10. Early voting stats also heavily favoring Dems in Minnesota.
Nebraska: Another split state. District 2, solid Harris, +12. Rest of the state is solid red.
Nevada: Trump +1. Another poll has Trump +1. Two other polls, even. A YouGov poll from earlier in October had Harris +4 and +9.
New Hampshire: Shocker poll has the state EVEN! Others had Harris +4 and +7.
North Carolina: Harris +1. Another poll EVEN. Other polls Trump +2 and +3.
Pennsylvania: Trump +3. Another poll Trump +2. A couple polls EVEN, another Trump +1.
Virginia: Harris +8, but a poll from a few days back had Harris up only +1.
Wisconsin: Last 3 polls had Trump +1, a poll from a few days back had Harris +2.
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So with 538 showing a number of polls dead even, which does not seem to be the case over at Real Clear Polling, it will be interesting come Election Day how everything turns out. I get the sense that RCP is more accurate than Nate Silver, but that could just be my own bias. We'll find out the answer next week.
