Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina to hit 270.  Everything else will be gravy.  

Nicky hasn’t made a prediction and to date has only acknowledged that it’s very close. Yet when the pollsters report it as a toss up, Nicky says they haven’t got it right?

I’m also taking issue with the massive change in the electorate take.  We’ve seen more women shift to DEM post Dobbs, but we’ve also seen a shift of minority voters to the GOP.  Massive change? Incremental maybe. But massive? No.

My What If Premise says that pollsters significantly undercount GOP voters in polls. The margins do vary by 2% to almost 10%. But there seems to be this odd phenomenon where that percentage varies by state. I assume this has something to do with how sophisticated and refined the polling is in a given state. I was looking at this the other day, and some states are really out there. The polling in Texas for instance is really bad. Nevada seems a bit goofy too. But Virginia seems to be pretty spot on. Their variance is not that high. This isn’t too surprising, Virginia has a lot of resources, a lot of federal workers, lots of military, etc. But places like Minnesota the variance is like 7-8% in the last couple elections. So how much the polls are off does bounce around a bit. But one thing I haven’t seen is any state undercounting Democrats. It may happen, but I haven’t seen any evidence of it.

The conservatives are unemotional and form their opinions based on facts while the Libs are all about following their emotions and feelings.  The respective nominees know this and that's why they conducted their campaigns to target these two distinct types of voters.   The facts are not going to change for the conservatives, so they will stay the course.  However, moderate Dems who realized they are being manipulated through their emotions are still available for poaching by Trump.   That is why the more Kamala shows she is playing them through her repetitive rhetoric and avoidance of the issues, the more she will hemorrhage voters who will move over to common-sense with Trump.  She is trying to convince voters that it is more important to hate Trump than to want a better life for themselves, and even hard-core Libs are waking up to her scam.