“Hold on!” you say. “Willy’s gone off the deep end again!” Hear me out. Polling from May has Biden +10 over Trump, but that’s only in a head to head contest. When you add 3rd parties candidates like Kennedy, Jill Stein and Cornell West that lead drops to only +6. Well, Trump is +6 in Nevada and the media still thinks Nevada is a swing state. So why not New York?

 
Here’s the kicker. Some Republican insiders that I talk to said their own “not public” polling seems to indicate that Trump could be far more competitive in New York then the other polls are showing. When you dig into the numbers it seems there’s a fear factor going on. People when polled are afraid to admit their support for Trump. And so they say they support Biden when they really won’t be supporting him come election day.  

 
Now how big this factor is, isn’t exactly known. Some study of this issue suggests it could be as high as 20%, but that seems overly optimistic. But it is a real factor. And some Republican insiders think that between third party candidates and this fear factor could move Trump into the win column for New York. Not by much. Maybe only by 1% to a half a percent. But theoretically enough for Trump to win New York state.  

 
If you’ve been confused by why Trump would campaign in New York state, that’s the reason. Republicans think that with young minorities leaving the Dems in droves, it could be enough to tip New York red come election day.