Never Trump conservative thinks there’s only one way to beat Trump, and that is Biden withdrawing. Non-paywalled link below.
He doesn't appear to have one. His style of governance is to manage threats, not defeat them. He has sought to provide Ukraine with sufficient weaponry not to lose to Vladimir Putin. But even before congressional Republicans forced a spending hiatus, he was reluctant to give Ukraine the types or numbers of weapons it needed to evict Russian forces from its territory.
He has vowed that Iran will never get nuclear weapons. But in the face of Iran's refusal to give international inspectors access to its nuclear facilities, the United States worked to soften a diplomatic censure.
He has promised to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion. But projected U.S. military spending, when adjusted for inflation, is essentially flat, and U.S. naval power isn't keeping pace with China's growth.
Biden desperately needs some wins — real, not cosmetic, ones. Who in his administration is thinking about how to get him some?
Gavin Newsome - CA
Phil Murphy - NJ
Gretchen Whitmer - MI
Josh Shapiro - PA
Robert’s got a good subthread going on Michelle replacing Biden. Any people other than Obama getting the nomination if Joe drops out?
The polling post conviction doesn’t seem to have budged. If the debate is seen as a loss or tie for Joe, I think he will be essentially forced to step down. I pick Mrs Obama. No way we go with a white make when Kamala is the VP. Michelle solves all problems. Gavin is the VP. That ticket crushes Trump.
Kamala’s developed a pretty devout base of rabid supporters. Would there be any backlash from them over a Kamala snub, even if it were for another Black woman?
Kamala would have to back it for it to work. That would all be worked out in a backroom. He would step down citing his age, health etc and she would play the good soldier and say her and Joe are a team. "Where he goes, I go" kinda thing.
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Michelle and Gavin step in, Joe and Kamala publicly back them and back them strongly, Kamala gets something, maybe a SCOTUS appointment, and this unites the entire Dem party and crushes Trump in November.
In your scenario, a SCOTUS seat would be the only prize she could be offered that I see her willingly settling for. Of course that would revive the “Democrats are going to pack SCOTUS” argument.
Refusing to even consider Obama's nominee almost a year before an election?
Ramming through Barrett only a few months before Biden's election?
All courtesy of McConnell The Corrupt.
But even increasing the number of Justices would not really be "packing." Nowhere in the Constitution does it say the SCOTUS must have nine justices. And the number of justices has fluctuated in the past. The rule for much of the 19th century was there should be as many Justices as there are circuit courts of appeal because each was supervised by a different Justice. And today we have 13 circuits. So there's a strong argument for 13 justices. I'd be fine with that.
Sow the wind. Reap the whirlwind.
Define it? Certainly raising the number of Justices from 9 to 13 and filling those seats in one term. Add in retirements and that would mean one President seating 5-7 Justices in one term.
That would be very similar to FDR’s court packing plan, which would have had him nominate 6 new justices to SCOTUS. FDR’s proposal was very unpopular and was shot down in Congress. I think a similar Obama/Biden proposal would suffer the same fate. (I stated Obama/Biden because in Robert’s hypothetical, the attempt to seat Kamala on SCOTUS would be the result of a Michelle Obama nomination).
The polling post conviction doesn’t seem to have budged. If the debate is seen as a loss or tie for Joe, I think he will be essentially forced to step down. I pick Mrs Obama. No way we go with a white make when Kamala is the VP. Michelle solves all problems. Gavin is the VP. That ticket crushes Trump.
Even if there were a 10% chance that Michelle would run, how would a deal come together?
Does Biden agree to step down only if Michelle runs? Who asks and then convinces the President to take this route? And then what if Michelle turns down the offer. Imagine the hysteria if that story leaked.
Alternatively, who convinces Michelle to make the first move? “Hey Michelle. Why don’t you run for president? All you have to do is talk to Joe, AND Jill, AND Kamala, and convince them that they should quit the race and let you take their place.”
That would be my question for Robert. If A is Joe running and potentially losing, and B is Michelle running and dropping Kamala from the ticket too, how do you actually get from A to B?
I am not saying all the backdoor brokering would be easy, but with Democracy "on the line" as my party keeps saying, and that I agree with, once undreamed things can materialize. Just ask Bernie Sanders what happened when the party turned against him in early 2020. All done by back room brokering.