A polling bounce often occurs after national conventions. This nightly poll by Rasmussen is the state of the race just at the open of the DNC. I publish it here as a reference to compare polls in the next week or two to see the magnitude of the bounce, if any.
Head pollster Mark Mitchel at Rasmussen Reports says the last data point is likely an outlier and the average seems to be a 3 point Trump advantage.
Yeah that’s confidence inspiring. Scared of the aggregate polling Lester? I see you cherry picked an obvious pro-Trump group. “America’s Hitler” would be proud of you.
You might as well make peace with this now.
And telling him he needs to change strategies...because Trump is winning. lol. Got it.
your continuing to call Trump Hitler when it's the Democrat party who gave their voters the finger and replaced Joe with Kamala. Trump had people running against him and was the clear choice among the majority of Republicans who voted. There is no way to say that if Kamala had run against Joe that she would have received any votes at all. In 2020 when she did, she was the first one to drop out. The public doesn't like her. They are just on a high right now knowing Joe is not going to push a button in confusion and blow up the world. Once they assess Kamala's failure in the past 3.5 years, she's gone. You don't seem to have a problem getting the finger from the party elites because you're probably used to it in everyday life. Most people aren't.
...an idiot as well. JD Vance called him "America's Hitler" you dunce.
These Republicans wack-jobs all ride the same hobby horse direct from the RNC. There was no coup. It's a fantasy. Most Dems were appalled by what they saw of Joe at the debate. They simply expressed their opinion, WHICH THE REPUBLICANS WERE HAPPY TO AGREE WITH. When Joe decided to step down he threw his support to Harris and the party complied.
Now the Republicunts want to make an issue of it as though the party masses were betrayed. Well, where are all those angry Dems? In fact they're cheering for Kamala. And the Reps are running scared. Thus they are throwing all kinds of shit up against the wall. But it won't stick.
They seem to conveniently forget that when voters nominated Biden they also voted for Harris AT THE SAME TIME.
These Republicans wack-jobs all ride the same hobby horse direct from the RNC. There was no coup. It's a fantasy. Most Dems were appalled by what they saw of Joe at the debate. They simply expressed their opinion, WHICH THE REPUBLICANS WERE HAPPY TO AGREE WITH. When Joe decided to step down he threw his support to Harris and the party complied.
Now the Republicunts want to make an issue of it as though the party masses were betrayed. Well, where are all those angry Dems? In fact they're cheering for Kamala. And the Reps are running scared. Thus they are throwing all kinds of shit up against the wall. But it won't stick.
They seem to conveniently forget that when voters nominated Biden they also voted for Harris AT THE SAME TIME.
Ohhhhh politics is funny
what I posted that made you think I'm a racist? Got a link, or have you just run out of relevant arguments of substance? Same question as to why you think I'm a stalker. Got a link to anyone credible calling me a stalker lately?
You posted what JD said YESTERDAY, and I responded. When he said that, he was barely out of Harvard Law. Is it really so surprising that a student coming out of an ultra-liberal school would say this about Trump? He has since practiced law and become a successful businessman and has admitted that he was more or less a dumb kid when he said that. Now is eight years later, so how is that relevant. Now you double down again today after no response to refute my response from yesterday?
You seem to want to hold Vance accountable for what he said eight years ago, but you want to give Kamala a pass for the MANY things she said 4 years ago and is now trying to distance herself from. Got hypocrisy?
...an idiot as well. JD Vance called him "America's Hitler" you dunce.
But you can a l l l l l l l ya want! 👍👍👍
Rasmussen nightly polling finds a convention bounce for Harris -- pulls even with Trump for final three days of DNC. Bounces can take a few days to finally develop after events. So the state of the race should become more clear in about a week when bounces begin to fade.
The Polymarket swung toward Trump during the DNC and even after Kamala speech and RFKjr endorsement of Trump, Trump is still +1. It's plausible that the RFKjr endorsement really did mute the DNC bounce. We'll know more over the next week.
Yesterday evening Polymarket switched from Trump +1 to Harris +1, but this morning it is tied. Polymarket is not seeing anyone running away with the race just yet.
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I think the time for the convention bounce is fading. It's beginning to look like the RFKjr endorsement did mute the DNC bounce.
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We're entering the slog till November. There'll be the debate which we already know the liberal media will proclaim Kamala the winner. And there is the TV, radio, and Internet political ad campaigns. I suspect Trump will do a lot more unscripted interviews than Kamala. So that's a summary of the things that can swing the outcome going forward.
There hasn't been enough time to determine any "bounces" Lester. The endorsement just happened on Friday. We wont know for a week or so.
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Your obsession with Polymarket is very odd as well but you do love to cherry pick. She leads in the aggregate of the polling AND the betting markets, albeit slightly.
Polymarket is just a psychological temperature reading where people try to guess the mood of the electorate. It's just like the stock market. Part data, part emotion, part hopes and dreams.
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I find it interesting that after both conventions are over, the market is evenly split.
Also the market will exaggerate the swing. If one side is just a few percentage points ahead, the market will swing to the extreme because no one wants to lose their bet.
Trump 287, Harris 251
Pennsylvania remains key. Trump could lose AZ and NV and still win if he gets PA (and holds the other states he won in 2020.) But he does need one of WI, MI or PA in most other scenarios.
Still effectively a tie. Interesting. I wouldn't have expected stability at the middle. Usually these thing exaggerate in one direction or the other. I'm surprised.
Echelon I 1031 LV - 8/25, Trump 49, Harris 48. General election.
This poll had Biden up in June.
Read it and weep, Fester.
That's in the MOE, in other words, statistically a tie.
Morning Consult general election 7,818 RV | Aug. 23-25
Harris: 48% Trump: 44% Other: 4%
Trends
July 22 - Trump +2
Aug. 11 - Harris +3
Aug. 18 - Harris +4
Aug. 25 - Harris +4
It's registered voters, not likely voters, historically LV favor Republicans. Also note that there is no apparent DNC bounce for Harris. This poll was taken entirely after the convention versus the one that was taken before the convention.
No real bounce for Kamala coming out of the DNC. Looks like Trump picked up net 1 after RFKjr withdrawal, as expected.
the slippery slope for Kamala.
She really can't risk the basement strategy if the polls are this close. Although Trump has in the past over-performed the polls and no doubt they have tried to correct for that, it's a risky strategy to assume any slight lead in the poll is reliable.
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I think she will be forced to do some unscripted interviews. Not sure that helps her or not. But sometimes you gotta throw the hail mary pass.
have said on TV that there is a phantom regiment of voters behind Trump, i.e., people who will vote for Trump but lie to the pollsters that they are voting for Kamala or undecided, just like happened in 2016. They say that if Kamala is not ahead by 4-5 points, then Trump is ahead. If they are tied going into the election, Trump will have a significant win.
Pennsylvania Socal 713 LV - 8/23
Trump 48%
Harris 47%
This chart doesn't have a date legend on the bottom, but judging by the swing at the left side, it looks like it dates from Biden dropping out, so about a month. Looks like Kamala peaked two weeks ago. This is 538 model for probability of winning the election. Who knows what goes into their model.
1,200 RV, 8/22-26, D33/R29
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Hmm, still registered voters, and D+4.
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Not much of a DNC bounce.
More bounce fade. This chart is rounded but Rasmussen says it's Trump +1.4